Validacion Semanal: Realidad vs Pronostico

Semana Epidemiologica 25 | 15-21 junio 2026

333 Series evaluadas
5.7% SMAPE nacional medio
0.97 MASE nacional medio
155/299 Precision ≤25%

Panel de Desempeno Nacional

Semana 25 | 15-21 junio 2026 | Modo general

Alzheimer (G30)

2.4% SMAPE
42 Real
43 Pronostico
MASE 0.55
0 1.0 2.0
Excelente
Prophet EXCELENTE

Parkinson (G20)

3.3% SMAPE
156 Real
151 Pronostico
MASE 0.76
0 1.0 2.0
Excelente
Prophet EXCELENTE

Depresion (F32)

11.6% SMAPE
3,382 Real
3,011 Pronostico
MASE 0.62
0 1.0 2.0
Excelente
Deepar BUENO

Resumen Nacional

Comparacion agregada por padecimiento y sexo

PadecimientoSexoRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 42 43 2.4% 0.55 Prophet EXCELENTE
Hombres 14 18 25.0% 0.57 Prophet BUENO
Mujeres 29 28 3.5% 0.57 Prophet EXCELENTE
Parkinson (G20) General 156 151 3.3% 0.76 Prophet EXCELENTE
Hombres 90 81 10.5% 0.52 Stacking BUENO
Mujeres 74 73 1.4% 0.81 Prophet EXCELENTE
Depresion (F32) General 3,382 3,011 11.6% 0.62 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 875 829 5.4% 1.03 Deepar EXCELENTE
Mujeres 2,569 2,191 15.9% 0.63 Stacking BUENO

Desempeno Regional

4 regiones sociales con desglose por sexo

Metropolitana alta (4 entidades)

PadecimientoSexoRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 13 11 16.7% 0.53 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 7 4 54.5% 0.43 Deepar FALLO
Mujeres 7 5 33.3% 0.56 Stacking REGULAR
Parkinson (G20) General 31 38 20.3% 0.23 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 20 14 35.3% 0.30 Deepar REGULAR
Mujeres 11 18 48.3% 0.34 Deepar REGULAR
Depresion (F32) General 1,191 1,132 5.1% 0.56 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 292 179 48.0% 0.74 Deepar REGULAR
Mujeres 926 854 8.1% 0.77 Deepar EXCELENTE

Urbana media (15 entidades)

PadecimientoSexoRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 22 17 25.6% 0.10 Deepar REGULAR
Hombres 6 7 15.4% 0.21 Deepar BUENO
Mujeres 16 15 6.5% 0.07 Deepar EXCELENTE
Parkinson (G20) General 75 68 9.8% 0.18 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 44 34 25.6% 0.15 Deepar REGULAR
Mujeres 39 29 29.4% 0.05 Deepar REGULAR
Depresion (F32) General 1,178 1,021 14.3% 0.39 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 289 230 22.7% 0.53 Deepar BUENO
Mujeres 889 676 27.2% 0.32 Deepar REGULAR

Rural / dispersa (7 entidades)

PadecimientoSexoRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 2 8 120.0% 0.09 Deepar FALLO
Hombres 0 3 200.0% 0.16 Deepar FALLO
Mujeres 2 9 127.3% 0.18 Deepar FALLO
Parkinson (G20) General 30 27 10.5% 0.81 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 15 17 12.5% 0.62 Deepar BUENO
Mujeres 15 14 6.9% 0.95 Deepar EXCELENTE
Depresion (F32) General 634 684 7.6% 0.45 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 190 172 9.9% 0.52 Deepar EXCELENTE
Mujeres 475 405 15.9% 0.42 Deepar BUENO

Sur-Sureste vulnerable (6 entidades)

PadecimientoSexoRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 5 6 18.2% 0.21 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 1 1 0.0% 0.22 Deepar EXCELENTE
Mujeres 4 2 66.7% 0.26 Deepar FALLO
Parkinson (G20) General 20 18 10.5% 0.10 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 11 9 20.0% 0.25 Deepar BUENO
Mujeres 9 2 127.3% 0.06 Deepar FALLO
Depresion (F32) General 379 345 9.4% 0.69 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 104 102 1.9% 0.75 Deepar EXCELENTE
Mujeres 279 267 4.4% 0.50 Deepar EXCELENTE

Detalle por Entidad Federativa

Modo general — 32 entidades + Nacional

Alzheimer (G30)

EntidadRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Nacional 42 43 2.4% 0.55 Prophet EXCELENTE
Aguascalientes 0 1 — 1.14 Ensemble N/A
Baja California 0 1 — 0.53 Stacking N/A
Baja California Sur 0 0 0.0% N/A Ensemble EXCELENTE
Campeche 0 0 0.0% 0.82 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Chiapas 3 1 100.0% 0.80 Prophet FALLO
Chihuahua 4 5 22.2% 0.77 Stacking BUENO
Ciudad de Mexico 4 1 120.0% 0.57 Prophet FALLO
Coahuila 0 2 — 0.88 Deepar N/A
Colima 0 2 — 0.73 Deepar N/A
Durango 2 1 66.7% 1.12 Ensemble FALLO
Guanajuato 2 1 66.7% 0.63 Prophet FALLO
Guerrero 0 1 — 0.78 Prophet N/A
Hidalgo 0 1 — 0.73 Prophet N/A
Jalisco 6 4 40.0% 0.77 Prophet REGULAR
Michoacan 0 1 — 0.70 Stacking N/A
Mexico 2 1 66.7% 0.55 Stacking FALLO
Morelos 1 1 0.0% 0.65 Prophet EXCELENTE
Nayarit 1 1 0.0% 0.55 Prophet EXCELENTE
Nuevo Leon 1 2 66.7% 0.57 Prophet FALLO
Oaxaca 2 1 66.7% 0.72 Prophet FALLO
Puebla 0 1 — 0.81 Ensemble N/A
Queretaro 0 0 0.0% 0.88 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Quintana Roo 0 0 0.0% 0.81 Ensemble EXCELENTE
San Luis Potosi 2 1 66.7% 1.00 Ensemble FALLO
Sinaloa 5 3 50.0% 0.69 Prophet REGULAR
Sonora 4 1 120.0% 0.57 Prophet FALLO
Tabasco 0 1 — 0.63 Ensemble N/A
Tamaulipas 1 3 100.0% 0.74 Prophet FALLO
Tlaxcala 0 0 0.0% 0.59 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Veracruz 1 3 100.0% 0.61 Stacking FALLO
Yucatan 0 1 — 0.61 Ensemble N/A
Zacatecas 1 0 200.0% 0.79 Ensemble FALLO
EXCELENTE 8 BUENO 1 REGULAR 2 FALLO 12 N/A 10 Total: 42 real / 42 pron | Error acumulado: 0.0%

Parkinson (G20)

EntidadRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Nacional 156 151 3.3% 0.76 Prophet EXCELENTE
Aguascalientes 3 1 100.0% 0.71 Prophet FALLO
Baja California 4 2 66.7% 0.42 Stacking FALLO
Baja California Sur 1 1 0.0% 0.82 Prophet EXCELENTE
Campeche 2 2 0.0% 1.00 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Chiapas 7 4 54.5% 0.57 Stacking FALLO
Chihuahua 10 8 22.2% 0.67 Prophet BUENO
Ciudad de Mexico 3 6 66.7% 0.25 Stacking FALLO
Coahuila 5 4 22.2% 0.56 Prophet BUENO
Colima 2 6 100.0% 0.98 Ensemble FALLO
Durango 2 6 100.0% 0.83 Prophet FALLO
Guanajuato 3 5 50.0% 0.79 Prophet REGULAR
Guerrero 1 3 100.0% 0.82 Prophet FALLO
Hidalgo 2 1 66.7% 0.67 Stacking FALLO
Jalisco 17 14 19.4% 0.69 Stacking BUENO
Michoacan 6 3 66.7% 0.14 Deepar FALLO
Mexico 8 6 28.6% 0.50 Stacking REGULAR
Morelos 7 5 33.3% 0.66 Prophet REGULAR
Nayarit 7 1 150.0% 0.74 Prophet FALLO
Nuevo Leon 3 4 28.6% 0.13 Deepar REGULAR
Oaxaca 3 2 40.0% 0.67 Prophet REGULAR
Puebla 2 10 133.3% 1.06 Prophet FALLO
Queretaro 1 1 0.0% 0.63 Prophet EXCELENTE
Quintana Roo 1 1 0.0% 1.14 Stacking EXCELENTE
San Luis Potosi 0 3 200.0% 0.68 Prophet FALLO
Sinaloa 15 11 30.8% 0.61 Stacking REGULAR
Sonora 9 3 100.0% 0.54 Prophet FALLO
Tabasco 3 3 0.0% 1.16 Prophet EXCELENTE
Tamaulipas 11 6 58.8% 0.88 Ensemble FALLO
Tlaxcala 1 1 0.0% 0.72 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Veracruz 11 16 37.0% 0.07 Deepar REGULAR
Yucatan 4 4 0.0% 0.26 Deepar EXCELENTE
Zacatecas 2 0 200.0% 0.63 Prophet FALLO
EXCELENTE 8 BUENO 3 REGULAR 7 FALLO 15 N/A 0 Total: 156 real / 143 pron | Error acumulado: 8.3%

Depresion (F32)

EntidadRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Nacional 3,382 3,011 11.6% 0.62 Deepar BUENO
Aguascalientes 33 28 16.4% 0.43 Stacking BUENO
Baja California 115 118 2.6% 0.57 Stacking EXCELENTE
Baja California Sur 20 13 42.4% 0.52 Stacking REGULAR
Campeche 41 31 27.8% 1.01 Stacking REGULAR
Chiapas 63 54 15.4% 0.33 Deepar BUENO
Chihuahua 169 149 12.6% 0.10 Deepar BUENO
Ciudad de Mexico 608 551 9.8% 0.16 Deepar EXCELENTE
Coahuila 62 59 5.0% 0.69 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Colima 38 34 11.1% 0.30 Deepar BUENO
Durango 151 107 34.1% 1.11 Stacking REGULAR
Guanajuato 126 125 0.8% 0.08 Deepar EXCELENTE
Guerrero 43 65 40.7% 1.05 Stacking REGULAR
Hidalgo 82 65 23.1% 0.80 Stacking BUENO
Jalisco 250 185 29.9% 1.08 Stacking REGULAR
Michoacan 168 77 74.3% 1.24 Prophet FALLO
Mexico 278 253 9.4% 0.09 Deepar EXCELENTE
Morelos 89 75 17.1% 0.04 Deepar BUENO
Nayarit 64 67 4.6% 0.17 Deepar EXCELENTE
Nuevo Leon 55 67 19.7% 0.32 Deepar BUENO
Oaxaca 73 59 21.2% 0.17 Deepar BUENO
Puebla 85 58 37.8% 0.98 Prophet REGULAR
Queretaro 13 30 79.1% 1.20 Stacking FALLO
Quintana Roo 44 31 34.7% 0.17 Deepar REGULAR
San Luis Potosi 76 50 41.3% 0.09 Deepar REGULAR
Sinaloa 90 99 9.5% 0.59 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Sonora 91 66 31.8% 0.53 Stacking REGULAR
Tabasco 66 44 40.0% 0.69 Ensemble REGULAR
Tamaulipas 51 70 31.4% 0.53 Ensemble REGULAR
Tlaxcala 29 14 69.8% 0.96 Ensemble FALLO
Veracruz 163 115 34.5% 0.76 Stacking REGULAR
Yucatan 92 108 16.0% 0.91 Stacking BUENO
Zacatecas 54 55 1.8% 0.20 Deepar EXCELENTE
EXCELENTE 8 BUENO 10 REGULAR 12 FALLO 3 N/A 0 Total: 3,382 real / 2,922 pron | Error acumulado: 13.6%

Semaforo por Entidad

Vista rapida (modo general) del desempeno de los modelos

EXCELENTE: SMAPE ≤10%BUENO: SMAPE ≤25%REGULAR: SMAPE ≤50%FALLO: SMAPE >50%N/A: Sin datos / cero real
EntidadAlzheimer (G30)Parkinson (G20)Depresion (F32)
Aguascalientes
—
100.0%
16.4%
Baja California
—
66.7%
2.6%
Baja California Sur
0.0%
0.0%
42.4%
Campeche
0.0%
0.0%
27.8%
Chiapas
100.0%
54.5%
15.4%
Chihuahua
22.2%
22.2%
12.6%
Ciudad de Mexico
120.0%
66.7%
9.8%
Coahuila
—
22.2%
5.0%
Colima
—
100.0%
11.1%
Durango
66.7%
100.0%
34.1%
Guanajuato
66.7%
50.0%
0.8%
Guerrero
—
100.0%
40.7%
Hidalgo
—
66.7%
23.1%
Jalisco
40.0%
19.4%
29.9%
Michoacan
—
66.7%
74.3%
Mexico
66.7%
28.6%
9.4%
Morelos
0.0%
33.3%
17.1%
Nayarit
0.0%
150.0%
4.6%
Nuevo Leon
66.7%
28.6%
19.7%
Oaxaca
66.7%
40.0%
21.2%
Puebla
—
133.3%
37.8%
Queretaro
0.0%
0.0%
79.1%
Quintana Roo
0.0%
0.0%
34.7%
San Luis Potosi
66.7%
200.0%
41.3%
Sinaloa
50.0%
30.8%
9.5%
Sonora
120.0%
100.0%
31.8%
Tabasco
—
0.0%
40.0%
Tamaulipas
100.0%
58.8%
31.4%
Tlaxcala
0.0%
0.0%
69.8%
Veracruz
100.0%
37.0%
34.5%
Yucatan
—
0.0%
16.0%
Zacatecas
200.0%
200.0%
1.8%