Validacion Semanal: Realidad vs Pronostico

Semana Epidemiologica 33 | 10-16 agosto 2026

333 Series evaluadas
20.5% SMAPE nacional medio
0.80 MASE nacional medio
132/286 Precision ≤25%

Panel de Desempeno Nacional

Semana 33 | 10-16 agosto 2026 | Modo general

Alzheimer (G30)

15.4% SMAPE
36 Real
42 Pronostico
MASE 0.55
0 1.0 2.0
Excelente
Prophet BUENO

Parkinson (G20)

40.0% SMAPE
108 Real
162 Pronostico
MASE 0.76
0 1.0 2.0
Excelente
Prophet REGULAR

Depresion (F32)

6.1% SMAPE
3,151 Real
2,964 Pronostico
MASE 0.62
0 1.0 2.0
Excelente
Deepar EXCELENTE

Resumen Nacional

Comparacion agregada por padecimiento y sexo

PadecimientoSexoRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 36 42 15.4% 0.55 Prophet BUENO
Hombres 16 19 17.1% 0.57 Prophet BUENO
Mujeres 19 27 34.8% 0.57 Prophet REGULAR
Parkinson (G20) General 108 162 40.0% 0.76 Prophet REGULAR
Hombres 47 97 69.4% 0.52 Stacking FALLO
Mujeres 64 83 25.9% 0.81 Prophet REGULAR
Depresion (F32) General 3,151 2,964 6.1% 0.62 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 1,005 811 21.4% 1.03 Deepar BUENO
Mujeres 2,221 2,187 1.5% 0.63 Stacking EXCELENTE

Desempeno Regional

4 regiones sociales con desglose por sexo

Metropolitana alta (4 entidades)

PadecimientoSexoRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 14 12 15.4% 0.53 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 8 5 46.2% 0.43 Deepar REGULAR
Mujeres 6 6 0.0% 0.56 Stacking EXCELENTE
Parkinson (G20) General 22 48 74.3% 0.23 Deepar FALLO
Hombres 7 16 78.3% 0.30 Deepar FALLO
Mujeres 16 19 17.1% 0.34 Deepar BUENO
Depresion (F32) General 1,323 1,009 26.9% 0.56 Deepar REGULAR
Hombres 499 226 75.3% 0.74 Deepar FALLO
Mujeres 895 798 11.5% 0.77 Deepar BUENO

Urbana media (15 entidades)

PadecimientoSexoRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 15 27 57.1% 0.10 Deepar FALLO
Hombres 5 7 33.3% 0.21 Deepar REGULAR
Mujeres 9 21 80.0% 0.07 Deepar FALLO
Parkinson (G20) General 42 58 32.0% 0.18 Deepar REGULAR
Hombres 22 44 66.7% 0.15 Deepar FALLO
Mujeres 18 30 50.0% 0.05 Deepar REGULAR
Depresion (F32) General 976 1,020 4.4% 0.39 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 273 246 10.4% 0.53 Deepar BUENO
Mujeres 673 689 2.3% 0.32 Deepar EXCELENTE

Rural / dispersa (7 entidades)

PadecimientoSexoRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 3 5 50.0% 0.09 Deepar REGULAR
Hombres 1 2 66.7% 0.16 Deepar FALLO
Mujeres 2 4 66.7% 0.18 Deepar FALLO
Parkinson (G20) General 24 34 34.5% 0.81 Deepar REGULAR
Hombres 9 17 61.5% 0.62 Deepar FALLO
Mujeres 17 14 19.4% 0.95 Deepar BUENO
Depresion (F32) General 536 594 10.3% 0.45 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 161 142 12.5% 0.52 Deepar BUENO
Mujeres 397 480 18.9% 0.42 Deepar BUENO

Sur-Sureste vulnerable (6 entidades)

PadecimientoSexoRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 4 5 22.2% 0.21 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 2 2 0.0% 0.22 Deepar EXCELENTE
Mujeres 2 2 0.0% 0.26 Deepar EXCELENTE
Parkinson (G20) General 20 17 16.2% 0.10 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 9 8 11.8% 0.25 Deepar BUENO
Mujeres 13 3 125.0% 0.06 Deepar FALLO
Depresion (F32) General 316 349 9.9% 0.69 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 72 99 31.6% 0.75 Deepar REGULAR
Mujeres 256 250 2.4% 0.50 Deepar EXCELENTE

Detalle por Entidad Federativa

Modo general — 32 entidades + Nacional

Alzheimer (G30)

EntidadRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Nacional 36 42 15.4% 0.55 Prophet BUENO
Aguascalientes 0 1 — 1.14 Ensemble N/A
Baja California 1 1 0.0% 0.53 Stacking EXCELENTE
Baja California Sur 0 0 0.0% N/A Ensemble EXCELENTE
Campeche 1 0 200.0% 0.82 Ensemble FALLO
Chiapas 0 1 — 0.80 Prophet N/A
Chihuahua 10 4 85.7% 0.77 Stacking FALLO
Ciudad de Mexico 3 1 100.0% 0.57 Prophet FALLO
Coahuila 1 2 66.7% 0.88 Deepar FALLO
Colima 0 1 — 0.73 Deepar N/A
Durango 0 1 — 1.12 Ensemble N/A
Guanajuato 1 1 0.0% 0.63 Prophet EXCELENTE
Guerrero 0 1 — 0.78 Prophet N/A
Hidalgo 1 1 0.0% 0.73 Prophet EXCELENTE
Jalisco 3 3 0.0% 0.77 Prophet EXCELENTE
Michoacan 0 1 — 0.70 Stacking N/A
Mexico 4 2 66.7% 0.55 Stacking FALLO
Morelos 1 1 0.0% 0.65 Prophet EXCELENTE
Nayarit 0 1 — 0.55 Prophet N/A
Nuevo Leon 4 2 66.7% 0.57 Prophet FALLO
Oaxaca 1 1 0.0% 0.72 Prophet EXCELENTE
Puebla 0 1 — 0.81 Ensemble N/A
Queretaro 0 1 — 0.88 Ensemble N/A
Quintana Roo 0 1 — 0.81 Ensemble N/A
San Luis Potosi 0 1 — 1.00 Ensemble N/A
Sinaloa 0 3 200.0% 0.69 Prophet FALLO
Sonora 0 1 — 0.57 Prophet N/A
Tabasco 2 1 66.7% 0.63 Ensemble FALLO
Tamaulipas 1 3 100.0% 0.74 Prophet FALLO
Tlaxcala 0 0 0.0% 0.59 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Veracruz 2 2 0.0% 0.61 Stacking EXCELENTE
Yucatan 0 1 — 0.61 Ensemble N/A
Zacatecas 0 0 0.0% 0.79 Ensemble EXCELENTE
EXCELENTE 10 BUENO 1 REGULAR 0 FALLO 9 N/A 13 Total: 36 real / 41 pron | Error acumulado: 13.9%

Parkinson (G20)

EntidadRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Nacional 108 162 40.0% 0.76 Prophet REGULAR
Aguascalientes 1 1 0.0% 0.71 Prophet EXCELENTE
Baja California 3 3 0.0% 0.42 Stacking EXCELENTE
Baja California Sur 0 1 — 0.82 Prophet N/A
Campeche 1 2 66.7% 1.00 Ensemble FALLO
Chiapas 7 3 80.0% 0.57 Stacking FALLO
Chihuahua 7 9 25.0% 0.67 Prophet BUENO
Ciudad de Mexico 4 7 54.5% 0.25 Stacking FALLO
Coahuila 2 4 66.7% 0.56 Prophet FALLO
Colima 0 5 200.0% 0.98 Ensemble FALLO
Durango 0 7 200.0% 0.83 Prophet FALLO
Guanajuato 1 4 120.0% 0.79 Prophet FALLO
Guerrero 2 4 66.7% 0.82 Prophet FALLO
Hidalgo 0 1 — 0.67 Stacking N/A
Jalisco 11 16 37.0% 0.69 Stacking REGULAR
Michoacan 6 5 18.2% 0.14 Deepar BUENO
Mexico 7 12 52.6% 0.50 Stacking FALLO
Morelos 0 8 200.0% 0.66 Prophet FALLO
Nayarit 0 1 — 0.74 Prophet N/A
Nuevo Leon 0 4 200.0% 0.13 Deepar FALLO
Oaxaca 4 3 28.6% 0.67 Prophet REGULAR
Puebla 3 10 107.7% 1.06 Prophet FALLO
Queretaro 0 1 — 0.63 Prophet N/A
Quintana Roo 2 2 0.0% 1.14 Stacking EXCELENTE
San Luis Potosi 12 2 142.9% 0.68 Prophet FALLO
Sinaloa 7 11 44.4% 0.61 Stacking REGULAR
Sonora 4 3 28.6% 0.54 Prophet REGULAR
Tabasco 3 3 0.0% 1.16 Prophet EXCELENTE
Tamaulipas 5 7 33.3% 0.88 Ensemble REGULAR
Tlaxcala 2 1 66.7% 0.72 Ensemble FALLO
Veracruz 11 15 30.8% 0.07 Deepar REGULAR
Yucatan 3 2 40.0% 0.26 Deepar REGULAR
Zacatecas 0 1 — 0.63 Prophet N/A
EXCELENTE 4 BUENO 2 REGULAR 8 FALLO 14 N/A 5 Total: 108 real / 158 pron | Error acumulado: 46.3%

Depresion (F32)

EntidadRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Nacional 3,151 2,964 6.1% 0.62 Deepar EXCELENTE
Aguascalientes 37 31 17.6% 0.43 Stacking BUENO
Baja California 90 110 20.0% 0.57 Stacking BUENO
Baja California Sur 23 15 42.1% 0.52 Stacking REGULAR
Campeche 41 29 34.3% 1.01 Stacking REGULAR
Chiapas 52 48 8.0% 0.33 Deepar EXCELENTE
Chihuahua 172 192 11.0% 0.10 Deepar BUENO
Ciudad de Mexico 702 440 45.9% 0.16 Deepar REGULAR
Coahuila 52 60 14.3% 0.69 Ensemble BUENO
Colima 38 29 26.9% 0.30 Deepar REGULAR
Durango 60 107 56.3% 1.11 Stacking FALLO
Guanajuato 81 112 32.1% 0.08 Deepar REGULAR
Guerrero 57 62 8.4% 1.05 Stacking EXCELENTE
Hidalgo 85 68 22.2% 0.80 Stacking BUENO
Jalisco 325 185 54.9% 1.08 Stacking FALLO
Michoacan 144 71 67.9% 1.24 Prophet FALLO
Mexico 240 284 16.8% 0.09 Deepar BUENO
Morelos 75 76 1.3% 0.04 Deepar EXCELENTE
Nayarit 59 60 1.7% 0.17 Deepar EXCELENTE
Nuevo Leon 56 43 26.3% 0.32 Deepar REGULAR
Oaxaca 41 44 7.1% 0.17 Deepar EXCELENTE
Puebla 67 55 19.7% 0.98 Prophet BUENO
Queretaro 26 30 14.3% 1.20 Stacking BUENO
Quintana Roo 20 23 14.0% 0.17 Deepar BUENO
San Luis Potosi 58 44 27.5% 0.09 Deepar REGULAR
Sinaloa 77 100 26.0% 0.59 Ensemble REGULAR
Sonora 71 68 4.3% 0.53 Stacking EXCELENTE
Tabasco 70 44 45.6% 0.69 Ensemble REGULAR
Tamaulipas 50 81 47.3% 0.53 Ensemble REGULAR
Tlaxcala 22 13 51.4% 0.96 Ensemble FALLO
Veracruz 102 112 9.3% 0.76 Stacking EXCELENTE
Yucatan 92 111 18.7% 0.91 Stacking BUENO
Zacatecas 66 58 12.9% 0.20 Deepar BUENO
EXCELENTE 8 BUENO 11 REGULAR 10 FALLO 4 N/A 0 Total: 3,151 real / 2,805 pron | Error acumulado: 11.0%

Semaforo por Entidad

Vista rapida (modo general) del desempeno de los modelos

EXCELENTE: SMAPE ≤10%BUENO: SMAPE ≤25%REGULAR: SMAPE ≤50%FALLO: SMAPE >50%N/A: Sin datos / cero real
EntidadAlzheimer (G30)Parkinson (G20)Depresion (F32)
Aguascalientes
—
0.0%
17.6%
Baja California
0.0%
0.0%
20.0%
Baja California Sur
0.0%
—
42.1%
Campeche
200.0%
66.7%
34.3%
Chiapas
—
80.0%
8.0%
Chihuahua
85.7%
25.0%
11.0%
Ciudad de Mexico
100.0%
54.5%
45.9%
Coahuila
66.7%
66.7%
14.3%
Colima
—
200.0%
26.9%
Durango
—
200.0%
56.3%
Guanajuato
0.0%
120.0%
32.1%
Guerrero
—
66.7%
8.4%
Hidalgo
0.0%
—
22.2%
Jalisco
0.0%
37.0%
54.9%
Michoacan
—
18.2%
67.9%
Mexico
66.7%
52.6%
16.8%
Morelos
0.0%
200.0%
1.3%
Nayarit
—
—
1.7%
Nuevo Leon
66.7%
200.0%
26.3%
Oaxaca
0.0%
28.6%
7.1%
Puebla
—
107.7%
19.7%
Queretaro
—
—
14.3%
Quintana Roo
—
0.0%
14.0%
San Luis Potosi
—
142.9%
27.5%
Sinaloa
200.0%
44.4%
26.0%
Sonora
—
28.6%
4.3%
Tabasco
66.7%
0.0%
45.6%
Tamaulipas
100.0%
33.3%
47.3%
Tlaxcala
0.0%
66.7%
51.4%
Veracruz
0.0%
30.8%
9.3%
Yucatan
—
40.0%
18.7%
Zacatecas
0.0%
—
12.9%